Here Comes The Rain

Tuesday, August 26, 2014
7:30 p.m.

Here comes the sun… not. 

Although you wouldn’t know it, we are actually well above average for rainfall this month (and, come to think of it last month was above average in the rainfall department as well). This is due to Sea-Tac accumulating 0.50 inches of rain on the 12th and 0.85 inches on the 13th. We’ve tallied up a grand total of 1.43 inches of rain at Sea-Tac the entire month, but seeing as 1.35 inches fell in two days, you wouldn’t know that we are so much above average. Average for this time of month is 0.67 inches.

At the end of this week and into next week, we actually will have a pattern change which will bring us more rain. However, this rain will come to us in a more familiar fashion with periods of light rain as opposed to heavy downpours from convective activity. Before that though, we’ve got some warm weather to go through.

Tuesday got up to 88 at Sea-Tac, and Wednesday, while cooler, should still be pretty darn hot.

Valid 08:00 pm PDT, Tue 26 Aug 2014 – 3hr Fcst: Taken from the UW mm5rt website.

As you can see, there is a ridge of high pressure over us, but it is moving east and will continue to do so. As it does so, the door will be opened to a cooler, moister Pacific flow. I’d expect temperatures to climb into the mid 80s across much of Western Washington Wednesday with high 70s directly by the Sound, but Thursday and Friday will feature increasingly cloudy conditions with highs in the mid 70s, particularly in the mornings as a marine layer off the ocean settles in overnight and thins throughout the day. Don’t be surprised if you feel some drizzle in the mornings these days if there is a particularly strong marine push, particularly on Friday.

As for the rain, a small amount might stick around the Seattle area Thursday night as a very weak feature comes through, but most of it looks to roll through Saturday afternoon.

Valid 02:00 pm PDT, Sat 30 Aug 2014 – 93hr Fcst: Taken from the UW mm5rt website.

As you can see, the rain shown above is pretty negligible. The GFS shows a stronger system coming in Monday night though, and it could bring heavier amounts of rainfall. That being said, the European model, which is generally more accurate, predicts a drying trend after the weekend.

Valid 05:00 am PDT, Mon 01 Sep 2014 – 132hr Fcst: Taken from the UW mm5rt website.

Will we follow the GFS’ predictions, or will we tailor more closely to the Euro? It’s too far away to tell at this point, and the models have not been very consistent run-to-run. For example, the Saturday system was much stronger on Tuesday morning’s GFS than the run Tuesday night.

Either way, I don’t think we’ll be seeing much in the way of wildfires for a while. 🙂

Charlie

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