It’s Been 50 Days…

Thursday, September 6, 2012
10:24 P.M.

… since my last blog post.

Summer kind of does that to you. The more free time you have, the less you feel like doing. I’ve actually been quite busy with music and jobs, but that is no excuse for being off this blog for 50 days.

However, I do have one valid excuse, and that is that the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport has not seen any measurable rain in 46 days.

It’s been boring, to say the least.

But as this dry spell has become longer and longer, my outlook on weather, and life in general, has changed.

Here’s why. A 46-day long dry streak in Seattle is practically unheard of. There was a 51-day long dry streak in Seattle in 1951. I’d love to set a new record. Can we make it five more days?

Let’s take a day-by-day precipitation analysis of the latest WRF-GFS UW model run to find out.

Some of the charts on that site are pretty tricky to read, but this one is pretty simple. Where there are colors, precipitation is expected to fall, and different colors respond to different amounts of precipitation.

Will we get to day 47?

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Fri, 07 Sep 2012 – 24hr Fcst – UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 24 hour precip
Absolutely. Not a color to be found.
How about day 48?
Valid 05:00 pm PDT Sat, 08 Sep 2012 – 48hr Fcst – UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 24 hour precip

Still clear over Seattle! But things start to get a little interesting on day 49.

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Sun, 09 Sep 2012 – 72hr Fcst – UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 24 hour precip

Oh noes! The precipitation is infiltrating the Pacific Northwest. Seattle looks to stay dry for another day. Will the streak make it to 50?

Valid 05:00 pm PDT Mon, 10 Sep 2012 – 96hr Fcst – UW 12km 00z WRF-GFS 24 hour precip
The answer, in case you have poor eyes, is no. But there is hope! Weather models are not perfect, and there is a chance we could escape unscathed. I’ve never wished so hard for a dry day in my life.
Regardless of whether the streak gets broken, we look to be bone-dry for the foreseeable future. So go do something wet. Jump in the lake. Drink some orange juice. Make a slip-n-slide. But most of all, to all my friends and family, enjoy the rest of your summer. Because come November, there will be a lot more color on these maps.

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