Wednesday, January 11, 2012
I don’t have too much time here, but I thought I’d give you an update on the forecast for this weekend and beyond. It seems as though most forecasters are much more conservative as far as snow goes.
In fact, here’s what the KOMO forecast had to say this morning.
A few thoughts about this snow chance: It is marginal at best. It won’t be that cold and it isn’t forecast to be that wet. Any trend drier or milder will eliminate this snow chance entirely. That said, if we get just a little more moisture, snow may in fact accumulate (I consider an ‘accumulation’ more than 1″ on the ground) in the lowlands.
I disagree with this statement. I think we have more than a marginal chance of snow. Which leads me to my own snow scale rating!
For a refresher, it is printed below.
So, lets go through this scale.
LAWES level 0: You are on a planet that has the ingredients necessary for snow
LAWES level 1: Models are showing a chance of snow beyond a week out, 0-20% chance of snow
LAWES level 2: Models are showing a chance of snow within a week, 20-40% chance of snow
LAWES level 3: Models are all showing a scenario that would easily produce snow within a couple days, 40-60% chance of snow
LAWES level 4: Places around the area are already getting snow AND snow is forecasted for Seattle, 60-99 % chance of snow
LAWES level 5: Snow is occurring, 100% chance of snow (derp)
Now, notice how there are no measurements for how strong a Seattle snowstorm could be. But have no fear! That’s what suffixes are for.
.1 – 0-2 inches of snow
.2 – 2-4 inches of snow
.3 – 4-6 inches of snow
.4 – 6-8 inches of snow
.5 – over 8 inches of snow
.6 – board the next plane to Panama
I’m gonna go with a LAWES (Likelyhood of an Arctic Weather Event with Snow) 2.1 at this point. I’m pretty confident that some places in Western Washington will get snow, but I’m not quite sure that Seattle will get snow, so it would be around a 40% chance of snow in Seattle at this point. I’m not sure how much snow there will be yet (models are all over the place, so I’m going with a 0-2 inch estimate in Seattle for right now. Other places could get more. Still, I don’t think we will be boarding the next plane to Panama anytime soon.
This probably won’t be an event like 2008, but it has the potential to be major. It’s really hard to tell this far out though. Heck, some forecasters around here can’t predict snow 30 minutes in advance.