Monday, January 9, 2011
As I sit in the Ocean Sciences building waiting for my “Climatic Extremes” class, I can’t help but wish for more exciting weather around here. Thankfully, some of the models are giving me some hope that we could see change, but other models give us weather that is even more boring than it has been over the past two weeks (if that is possible).
Here is what the National Weather Service forecasting office in Seattle had to say about the extended forecast this morning.
LONG TERM…PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH LESSENS THE THREAT OF STAGNATION. MODELS
BECOME VERY INCONSISTENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
RIDGE IN PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD TROUGH INTO THE AREA.
BY 00Z MON THE GFS HAS 500 MB HEIGHTS OF 567 DM OVER SEATTLE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A 534 DM HEIGHT OVER SEATTLE WITH PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDE SPREADS IN THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
VERIFYING BETTER AND THE FORECAST IS TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION…JUST NOT AS COLD AS THE CURRENT MODEL RUN WOULD SUGGEST.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND REMAINS LOW. FELTON
Here, Mr. Felton is saying that the models are all over the place in terms temperature and precipitation in the extended. The GFS model (from the NWS) builds a ridge over us for the weekend (boring) while the ECMWF (European) model gives us colder air with rain in the lowlands but low snow levels in the mountains.
Since the European model is verifying better and is painting a more exciting picture for the extended, I’ll show you some pictures of the current model run.