Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Currently, we are seeing some moderate rain as a pretty strong system comes through. In addition, we will see some gusty winds tonight, as we will have a strong pressure gradient over us from this system. Take a look at the winds forecast at 1 A.M. PST tonight. You can see strong winds in most places, but there is an area of winds that are nearly calm over the Puget Sound region. If you can guess what this is, you are a true weather nut.
Valid 10:00 pm PST Wed, 16 Nov 2011 – 18hr Fcst – UW 12z 4/3km WRF-GFS SLP, 10m winds
It’s a convergence zone! To give you proof, look at the 3-hour precip at that time, and see the convergence zone over central Whidbey Island.
Valid 10:00 pm PST Wed, 16 Nov 2011 – 18hr Fcst – UW 12z 4/3km WRF-GFS 3-hour precip
This storm is passing through though, and the story for Friday is the threat of “lumpy rain.” I call it “lumpy” because it is basically all rain except for a little bit of snow that hasn’t quite melted, so it isn’t completely liquid.
See that penguin above? He is a sad, sad penguin. Even though the models weren’t quite showing it, he was hoping for some snow. Now, however, those snow chances are dwindling, and it looks as though he’s going to have to deal with a lumpy rain.
The bigger story is the heavy rain event that will occur on Tuesday. It is too early to tell if there will be flooding on some of the area rivers, but it will be very wet regardless. Take a look at the 24-hour precip ending at 4 P.M. PST Tuesday.
Valid 04:00 pm PST Tue, 22 Nov 2011 – 156hr Fcst – UW 12z 12km WRF-GFS 3-hour precip
Pretty wet for us, with the Olympics getting particularly hard hit. This situation bears watching.
I wrote this post super super quick, because I have to attend a meeting on majoring in atmospheric science in 11 minutes! Seeya!