First Significant Mountain Snowfall?

Thursday, October 6, 2011
11:30 P.M.

Hi everybody, it’s late but I thought I’d give a quick update. It is getting to be that time of year again, and the NWS has recently ascribed a “Special Weather Statement” to the Olympic and Cascade mountains. One of the models, the ECMWF, is showing a particularly strong dose of snow down to 5,000 feet next week. Unfortunately, I do not have access to this model, but the GFS also shows some action.

This is a picture of the jet stream at 300mb for next Monday, taken from the 00Z GFS model run from tonight. You can see a pretty hefty jet stream off the coast, and the ECMWF, which is generally a better model, shows an even stronger jet.

From the NWS…

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
323 PM PDT THU OCT 6 2011

WAZ513-518-519-072300-
OLYMPICS-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
323 PM PDT THU OCT 6 2011

...THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET COULD SEE THEIR FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OF THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG JET STREAM IN THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RUNS FROM
SOME FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE JET MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOW
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE 2011-2012 WINTER SEASON.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL INTO THE MOUNTAINS OR ACROSS THE HIGHER
PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK...PLEASE MONITOR LATEST FORECAST AND
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

ALBRECHT
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
 

You get the idea. I'll give you more details as the event approaches,
 
All the best, 
Charlie 
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