Long-term Forecast Uncertain

Thursday, March 24, 2011
3:12 P.M.

Hey everybody, short blog today since there really isn’t much going on and the forecast models that I have access to, the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Protection) GFS and NAM models, aren’t painting anything interesting for the future. We have a weak deformation zone over the area, which means that the air is diverging aloft and air from the surface is rising up to fill the void, creating clouds and precipitation. The precipitation is pretty weak.

Friday night we will see a slightly consolidated frontal system shift through the area, and Saturday night will feature a similar story. The GFS then builds a strong upper ridge over the area which would deflect systems and precipitation and keep us drier and warmer than normal. I’d like that if it was the summer, but alas, it is just the spring, and I’d like to get our winter weather just a little longer.

Thankfully, there is hope for rain fans like me. The European Model, which is generally regarded as the most accurate model (we should be ashamed), shows rather heavy rains impacting our area next week. The Canadian GEM model also shows this scenario, albeit with only moderate rains. Maybe the American models will change their tone and I can publish on this blog some of the model charts. We will see…

Have a good one,
Charlie

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