To Be Or Not To Be?

Sunday, January 9, 2011

 

9:04 P.M.

As I try to memorize this stupid… er… wonderful passage, I am faced with an utterly more important question. Will we, or will we not, see a major snowstorm?

 

And the answer is… I really have no clue. But it is looking less likely.

One thing meteorologists look for in models is run to run consistency and trends. The previous models, especially the one Americans use the most, the GFS, were all very, very consistent in bringing a historical snow event to at least some part of the Pacific Northwest. However, now all the models have shifted the storm track much further north. This means we would be on the warm side of the storm. As you can see in the map above, the low pressure center is now approximately over Ucluelet (Southern Vancouver Island). This would mean that instead of getting a cool northerly wind to cause snow to the area, we would get a warmer southerly wind that would change it all to rain. We may see 1-3 inches before the switchover, but compared to what the models were showing before, this is nothing.

But there is a little bit of good news. I did save money on my car insur…

Just kidding. But really, there is some good news. Models before had the storm even further north, up by the northern tip of Vancouver Island. Now, it is about 200 more miles south. If it is 200 miles more south, we WILL see a snowstorm of historic proportions. Precipitation is not the issue. The temperature is. 

And the mountains will see tons of snow regardless. Here is a 24 hour snowfall period forecast from 4 P.M. Tuesday to 4 P.M. Wednesday. The storm is also expected to get here sooner, Wednesday instead of Thursday.

Whether tis nobler to have a storm come in to our south

Or to suffer the travesties of one to our north

Ok I give up. Gotta study.

But listen closely. If this storm does come to our south, we will see a foot, perhaps more, of snow. So now is the time to prepare.

You stay classy, planet Earth.

Charlie

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