October 20, 2010
The details on the storms this weekend are still very, very murky. The American models, the GFS and the NAM, have been forecasting a large low pressure system to bottom out in the Gulf of Alaska at around 950 millibars, sending a strong front right into our area. This is a very deep low, but, surprisingly, these type of events are not all that uncommon where sub-950 millibar lows intensify until they kind of stall in the Gulf of Alaska. Here is a picture of the mm5-GFS model for 5 P.M. Saturday.
As you can see there is a powerful 965 mb cyclone slamming right into us. That would give us high winds. The latest GFS also *kind of* follows this, though the storm is further north and it kind of fizzles out before hitting us, stll giving us lots of rain and wind but not windstorm-type winds. One thing is for sure – the Cascades above 4000 feet will get a LOT of snow from this storm, and I think Snoqualmie Pass will end up getting some too.
The NWS guys will be busy over the next couple days. Come to think of it, so will I. 🙂