May 2008

Wow! It has been a while since I wrote a forecast for this! I don’t even have a prediction for today!
Well, remember how I said it could get really warm in the long range like a week ago? That time is finally here. A warm ridge of high pressure combined with a “thermal low” will produce possibly record highs, especially Friday and Saturday. Offshore flow (from east to west) will result in adiabatic warming; where the air warms and dries as it flows down in elevation (Cascade Mountains, anyone?). Alpental will still be open this weekend, and the forecast high on Saturday could be like 85 ish or even higher into the upper 80s. I would LOVE to ski in that, but I’m going to be in Desert School. 😦 Another life-changing opportunity passes me by.

Forecast:
Thursday: 76 50 mostly sunny
Friday: 89 55 sunny
Saturday: 85 60 sunny
Sunday: 75 53 mostly sunny
Monday: 70 51 mostly sunny

Extended:
Looks cool and wet again next week, but snow levels should be above pass levels (since it is mid-late may). How sad.

May 7, 2008
Predicted: 57 42
Actual: 55 45
Well, the convergence zone has not been as strong as originally thought. These past few days have still not seemed like spring, being cloudy with light rain at times. Not much else new in the forecast, though.

Forecast:
Thursday: 57 41 showers
Friday: 60 42 partly cloudy
Saturday: 60 43 showers
Sunday: 55 41 few showers
Monday: 59 42 mostly cloudy

Extended: REALLY long range, like next week and beyond, we could actually get sunny and warm! Woohoo!

May 5, 2008
Predicted: 67 46
Actual: 66 50

Well, it looks like this day will be the last warm one in a while. Warm days this spring have been as hard to come by as Mariners wins this spring (although it looks like they will win this one). While today was pretty warm at 66, we probably wont see a day this warm for a while. In fact, the pattern about to take place will add to the mountain snowpack, especially in the central cascades. This is because of the convergence zone mentioned before in earlier discussions. This means that snoqualmie and stevens passes could get fairly significant amounts of snow for late May, while places like Mt. Rainier or Mt. Baker could get none. All I care is that Alpental gets snow. It is still open you know!

See you on the slopes!
Forecast:
Tuesday: 59 43 showers
Wednesday: 57 42 showers
Thursday: 56 42 showers
Friday: 61 43 partly cloudy
Saturday: 59 44 showers

Extended:
The weekend doesn’t look as sunny as we thought, as another upper-level low pressure system directs showery weather into Western Washington, with more of the white stuff in the mountains. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

May 4, 2008
Predicted: 62 45
Actual: 64 46

I’m sorry I haven’t been writing every day lately. I have been busy with music festivals and all that jazz (excuse the horrible pun).
Well, the weekend finally sort of fell into place, with the GFS solution (American model) being more accurate than the ECMWF (European model). Now that we are entering the work week, we will definitely cool off as we once again become under the influence of ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM! The northwest flow will result in snow in the mountains and a convergence zone somewhere between Kent and Everett.
There will not be a whole bunch of precipitation with this system, though, but the warmth we have had (or at least average temperatures) will soon be gone. Monday will be similar to today, though, with a mix of sun and clouds.
Enjoy Cinco de Mayo!

Forecast:
Monday: 67 46 partly sunny
Tuesday: 58 42 mostly cloudy
Wednesday: 53 42 few showers
Thursday: 57 44 few showers
Friday: 58 45 few showers

Extended outlook:
Saturday might be your day to play. After that, we can expect to stay in this cool pattern. Who knows? It may keep raining until July 5th. 🙂

May 1, 2008
Predicted: 60 45
Actual: 58 39

The only thing that has really changed is the weekend. The models have come into broader agreement, sort of a compromise between them. Not going to write much tonight. It is getting late.

Forecast
Friday: 58 42 few showers
Saturday: 59 42 isolated showers
Sunday: 62 45 partly cloudy
Monday: 64 46 partly cloudy
Tuesday: 59 41 showers

Extended: A little warmer than earlier thought.

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