Thursday, September 23, 2010
Yup, you guessed it, the rain is BACK in the forecast. We had different scenarios being forecasted by two different models. The American GFS model was forecasting dry and warm, with rain going right to the north of us, while the European ECMWF was forecasting rain. Naturally, we believed our own forecasting model, because we think that everything about America is way better than our inferior relatives across the pond. However, it’s no secret that the ECMWF is a better forecasting model, especially for the long run. We just generally use our models because we have the amazing UW mm5 models for them, but yeah, long-range forecasting is the achilles heal of our models.
I’ll have another, longer forecast later, I just have a bunch of hw to do.