October 21, 2009
Looking at the weather models this afternoon, I noticed that we could see our first flooding event of the season next week if the situation shown by the models comes true. Let’s take a look at the furthest time frame the extended WRF-GFS model from the UW goes out.
This model frame shows post-frontal showers over the mountains (notice the broken appearance of the precipitation over our area and how the mountains orographically enhance it). It also shows a very moist and juicy warm front out over the Pacific, and although this model doesn’t got out far enough in time to show it hitting us, the global models say that it will, bringing heavy rain, wind, and mild temperatures. I hope that happens; that would be exciting.
Regarding the system I talked about yesterday, the model today shows that it will be very weak but also shows an extremely powerful (almost 200 knot!) jet stream powering it, so I don’t really know what is going on there. We’ll see.
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